Trevor Sturgess

Don’t bet on it, although it just might be less apocalyptic than most commentators suggest.

Many blame the media for excessive gloom and making recession a self-fulfilling prophecy.

Yet the facts tell the story. The West suffered a major banking crisis and famous names in finance - Lehman Brothers, Bear Stearns - and on the high street - Woolies, MFI, Adams - went the way of the dinosaur.

Our high streets will look different as other well-known names struggle. Niche retailers are vulnerable as supermarkets and discounters poach market share from consumers feeling the pinch. Dented confidence and fear of redundancy will make many feel guilty about spending.

More people are set to lose their jobs, with Kent and Medway’s jobless tally possibly growing from 23,000 to around 30,000.

Pubs, media, residential property, construction are all set for a dismal year.

Football, so long immune to any downturn, may find that past profligacy and excess force overdue wage cuts. Kent County Cricket should benefit from the eagerly-awaited Ashes clash.

House prices are set to fall again. They have already dipped around 16 per cent. However, demand remains strong and with interest rates at an historic low, the market could start to move by the end of the year.

But that will only happen if banks and lenders loosen the purse-strings. Banks - authors of their own misfortune, and ours - are trying to repair balance sheets and despite hassling from Gordon Brown, will remain reluctant to lend.

Bankers should get no bonus - but don’t bank on it.

Share prices plummeted by around 30 per cent in 2008, with the FTSE 100 - the Footsie - suffering its worst year for more than 20 years.

Don’t expect much of a bounce in 2009, a year when savers, people on fixed incomes, and shareholders - unsung victims of the crunch - face more financial nightmares. Mr Brown should remember there are seven voting savers for every voting borrower.

Expect more developments at Kent Reliance Building Society, an innovative mutual that has seen rocketing growth in recent years. Expansion in India should win it more processing contracts from third-party clients.

The county ought to emerge from recession in a better position than other areas. Nothing has changed our handy location between London and the eurozone. Kent Thames Gateway is still going to happen.

Commuting and its railway backwater image will be transformed by high-speed domestic services launched in December. But will enough commuters be willing to pay a 30 per cent premium as the City sheds jobs?

The Olympic Games in London in 2012 will be closer, a deadline that cannot be missed, and Olympic-related projects should accelerate in 2009.

Expect the worst in 2009 - and anything better will be a bonus. But you are unlikely to hear the last of doom and gloom, credit crunch, hedge funds, credit default swaps, derivatives, economic downturn, recession, administration, Robert Peston and all the other words we barely knew a year ago.

And some wish never to hear again.

More predictions, and a review of 2008, in Kent Business, this week.